@Article{DikpatiGilmKane:2010:LeMiPr,
               author = "Dikpati, Mausumi and Gilman, Peter A and Kane, Rajaram P",
          affiliation = "Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, High Altitude Observ, Boulder, CO 80301 
                         USA. and Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, High Altitude Observ, Boulder, CO 
                         80301 USA. and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Length of a minimum as predictor of next solar cycle's strength",
              journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
                 year = "2010",
               volume = "37",
               number = "L06104",
                pages = "4",
                month = "Mar.",
             keywords = "flux transport, solar-cycle-24, rotation, dynamo.",
             abstract = "Motivated by a prevailing view that a long minimum leads to a weak 
                         sunspot cycle, we estimate the correlation coefficients between 
                         the length of a cycle minimum and (i) the following cycle's peak, 
                         (ii) the preceding cycle's peak, (iii) following peak minus 
                         preceding peak and (iv) depth of minimum. Using both sunspot 
                         number and spot area data, we find that a long minimum is both 
                         followed and preceded by weak cycles. Similarly short minima are 
                         followed and preceded by strong cycles. Consistent with these 
                         results, we find no correlation between the length of a cycle 
                         minimum and the difference in peaks of the following and preceding 
                         cycles. From sunspot number data, for longer-than-average minima, 
                         five following cycle peaks were lower than that of the preceding 
                         cycles' peaks, while four were higher. Following shorter 
                         than-average minima, seven cycle peaks were higher than the 
                         preceding peaks and seven were lower. Therefore one cannot predict 
                         from the length of a minimum whether the next cycle will be 
                         stronger or weaker than the preceding cycle. Thus we cannot 
                         predict whether cycle 24 will be stronger or weaker than 23. We 
                         also find that there is a strong anticorrelation between the 
                         length of a solar cycle minimum and the depth of that minimum. We 
                         define the depth as the least spot number or spot area 
                         (13-rotation averaged) within the span of a cycle minimum. We 
                         speculate that this anticorrelation is due to the longer time 
                         available for annihilation of late cycle toroidal flux across the 
                         equator in the case of a longer minimum. Citation: Dikpati, M., P. 
                         A. Gilman, and R. P. Kane (2010), Length of a minimum as predictor 
                         of next solar cycle's strength, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06104, 
                         doi:10.1029/2009GL042280.",
                  doi = "10.1029/2009GL042280",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042280",
                 issn = "0094-8276",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "07.26.15.53__0094-8276.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "02 maio 2024"
}